Home Value Trail

Methodology

Every figure on this site is computed from files published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the US Census Bureau. This page explains each measure and the choices behind it. The current build uses FHFA's quarterly indexes through 2026 Q2, FHFA's annual indexes last updated March 31, 2026 (values through 2025), and building permits through August 2026.

Two FHFA index families

FHFA publishes its standard all-transactions house price index quarterly for the nation, census divisions, states and metropolitan areas (some large metros by metropolitan division), from 1975. Separately it publishes annual indexes for states, core based statistical areas, counties, three- and five-digit ZIP codes and census tracts, which it labels developmental. On this site the quarterly index draws the hero line and supplies the "year to 2026 Q2" figure on state and metro pages; every span comparison (1, 5, 10, 20 years, since 2000, since first year) uses the annual family at all five levels, so that a ZIP code, its county, its metro, its state and the nation are compared on one method and identical years. Purchase-only indexes appear on state pages for reference only.

Spans and the anchor year

Each area's spans end in the last year FHFA reports for it (the anchor) and its comparison columns use the same end year. Most ZIP codes run through 2025; where FHFA's series ends earlier, the page says so and every column ends in that year. A dash means the comparison level has no index value in one of the two years. Annualised figures are compound rates: (1 + change)^(1/years) − 1.

Decades

A decade's change is the index at the end of the decade divided by the index at the start, using calendar-year values (1980 to 1990 for "the 1980s"). The current decade is shown "so far", ending at the anchor year. FHFA sets each index to 100 in its base period, the first year the area has enough transactions; the decade change does not depend on that base.

Peak-to-low declines

Walking the annual series, a decline is recorded when the index falls at least 5% below a previous high before regaining it; the table lists the peak year, the low year, the decline and the year the earlier peak was first regained, deepest first, up to four. Annual values smooth quarterly movements, so a decline measured on quarterly data can be larger.

Best and weakest years, strongest and weakest decades

Year-on-year changes between consecutive reported years only; decades exclude the partial current decade.

Building permits

Housing units authorised by building permits for new privately owned residential construction, from the Census Bureau Building Permits Survey: county and state monthly files for the latest 60 months, place monthly files for the latest 24 months, and annual files from 1995. Units are shown by structure size as the survey reports them (1 unit; 2 units; 3–4 units; 5 or more units). Monthly figures for places that report less often than monthly are imputed by the Census Bureau; annual files include those imputations. Metro permits are the sum of member counties under OMB's July 2023 delineations.

Per 1,000 residents

Units authorised in the latest 12 months divided by the Census Bureau's vintage 2025 population estimate, times 1,000. Counties, states and metros use county totals; cities use the estimate for the incorporated place whose FIPS code matches the permit office, and show a dash where the permit office is a county's unincorporated area, a township or another unit without a matching estimate.

Geography

Not used in this build

American Community Survey context (median value, owner share) requires a Census API key and is skipped (no CENSUS_KEY). The HUD USPS ZIP crosswalk requires a HUD User token and is skipped (no HUD_TOKEN); the Census relationship file above is used instead.

Thresholds and indexing

ZIP, county and metro pages need ten years of index history to be indexed; shorter series are built but marked "noindex". City pages are built for places with at least 12 units authorised in the latest 12 months or the 12 before; those below 12 in the latest 12 months are marked "noindex". Micropolitan areas are included under "metro" URLs and labelled as micropolitan. Puerto Rico and the territories are outside the state files used and are not covered.

Recession shading

Shaded bands are the National Bureau of Economic Research's business-cycle peak-to-trough dates: November 1973–March 1975, January–July 1980, July 1981–November 1982, July 1990–March 1991, March–November 2001, December 2007–June 2009 and February–April 2020.

Why figures can differ from FHFA's own tables